Co-developers of PFRAM 2.0 (World Bank–IMF) · 9/9 parity with the IMF Fiscal Risk Toolkit · IPSAS, OECD and PEFA operationalised in code
The one platform that consolidates the entire public-sector balance sheet — PPPs, state-owned enterprises, all-source guarantees, climate exposure — and shows its work. Every number is reproducible in your browser, built by a team that ran these decisions inside a Ministry of Finance and co-developed the IMF/World Bank PFRAM. No black box.
No sign-up — the demo opens on a fully worked example in seconds.
Every Austral tool ships with a reproducible reference implementation. Here is what it surfaces when pointed at the public record — each result is fully traceable to its inputs.
Chile's fiscal rule is anchored at 45% of GDP — measured on central-government debt alone. Consolidate SOE debt, PPP commitments and the contingent-liability stock the State itself publishes, and the same balance sheet reads 57–61% (44.8% under the narrowest consolidation). Same public data, the government's own method — a worked example of what whole-balance-sheet measurement surfaces.
Read the paper →Austral's market-data engine prices betas from live market prices, by sector and region — not off a single global table. A LatAm gas-utility beta comes in at 0.33 against the 0.16 global benchmark: a two-fold difference in systematic risk that flows straight into the discount rate, the guarantee price, and Value for Money.
See the method →The global infrastructure gap exceeds US$15 trillion by 2040. Closing it requires governments to structure projects responsibly, allocate risks optimally, and monitor fiscal exposure continuously. Yet most public institutions still rely on fragmented spreadsheets, ad-hoc advisory, and opaque processes — producing decisions without the analytical rigor that international standards demand.
Austral Intelligence exists to change this. We translate the full body of OECD, IMF, World Bank, GIH, and APMG guidance into integrated digital tools that any government can deploy — making advanced fiscal econometrics, Monte Carlo simulation, and portfolio risk analytics as accessible as opening a browser.
Accelerate project preparation and structuring by replacing months of manual spreadsheet work with purpose-built analytical engines that run in seconds.
Move public infrastructure management from Excel files shared by email to secure, multi-user web platforms with audit trails, version control, and institutional memory.
Every model, every assumption, every calculation is documented and reproducible. No black boxes — full methodology disclosure aligned with IMF Fiscal Transparency Code requirements.
OECD QII Principles, IMF FCCL framework, World Bank PPP Reference Guide, GIH risk matrices, APMG certification standards, IPSAS 19/32 — operationalized in code, not just cited in reports.
Every tool enforces affordability analysis, stress testing, and portfolio-level monitoring — ensuring no commitment is made without understanding its full fiscal impact over the entire concession.
Monte Carlo simulation, Garman-Kohlhagen option pricing, stochastic demand modeling, DSCR-driven debt analysis — techniques previously requiring PhD-level expertise, now available to any fiscal analyst.
From initial screening through operations and handback — every stage of a PPP concession requires specific analytical tools. Our platform maps to the World Bank PPP Reference Guide lifecycle, filling the critical gaps where governments typically lack capacity.
Aligned with World Bank PPP Reference Guide v3.0 · IMF FCCL Framework · APMG PPP Certification Guide · World Bank CCAP 2021–2025
Transitioning manual Excel-based infrastructure risk modeling into secure, scalable web applications — grounded in 30+ international standards frameworks. From country readiness and fiscal risk to climate scoring, procurement compliance, tariff regulation, and infrastructure fund management. Three modules (FARO, GFS Statements, PPP Monitoring) are in general availability; the rest are in active beta and fully usable today.
Every methodology manual that the market buys as a consulting deliverable has an executable equivalent in Austral. The Austral Manual Series is being published one title at a time, in English and Spanish; each row links to its manual when it goes live. In every case the client keeps the tool — and the capacity to operate it.
| # | Manual | Methodological basis | Austral tool that runs it | Manual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Value for Money and the Public Sector Comparator | PFRAM 2.0; World Bank PPP Reference Guide; HM Treasury Green Book | PPP Value-for-Money Analyzer | Published · Read → |
| 02 | Fiscal Commitments and Contingent Liabilities of PPPs (FCCL) | PFRAM 2.0; World Bank, Managing the Fiscal Implications of PPPs (2022) | FARO + Guarantee Valuation | In preparation |
| 03 | PPP Project Eligibility | World Bank PPP Reference Guide (screening); OECD Principles for Public Governance of PPPs | PPP Eligibility Screen | In preparation |
| 04 | Payment Mechanisms in PPPs | PFRAM 2.0; World Bank guidance on availability payments, minimum revenue guarantees and shadow tolls | Payment Mechanisms (Financial Model + FARO) | In preparation |
| 05 | Risk Allocation and Risk Analysis | PFRAM risk matrix; APMG CP3P | Risk Assessment & Allocation Matrix | In preparation |
| 06 | Fiscal Risk of State-Owned Enterprises | IMF SOE Health Check and Stress Test | SOE Fiscal Risk | In preparation |
| 07 | Guarantees and Contingent Liabilities of All Origins | IMF Fiscal Risk Toolkit (discrete and standardised guarantees) | Guarantee Valuation | In preparation |
| 08 | Concession Accounting for the Grantor | IPSAS 32; GFSM 2014 reconciliation | Austral Ledger — IPSAS Accounting | In preparation |
| 09 | The Fiscal Risk Statement | IMF Fiscal Transparency Code, Pillar III | Fiscal Risk Statement | In preparation |
| 10 | Subnational Fiscal Risk and Municipal Creditworthiness | World Bank City Creditworthiness; IMF | Subnational Fiscal Risk | In preparation |
| 11 | Modifications and Renegotiation of Concession Contracts | Guasch (2004); World Bank PPP contract-management guidance; Austral working papers The Renegotiation Triangle and The Intelligent Gate | Contract Modifications & Renegotiation (in development) | In preparation |
| 12 | Operations and Contract Supervision | PPP contract-management guidance | PPP Monitoring Dashboard (operations-phase extension, in development) | In preparation |
| 13 | Institutional Design of Concession Programmes | OECD Principles for Public Governance of PPPs; World Bank Country Readiness Diagnostic | Advisory service, supported by the Country PPP Readiness Diagnostic | In preparation |
Beyond the individual tools, the Austral platform now ships with five cross-cutting capabilities — already implemented in the unified Austral Platform. These capabilities work across every tool, turning the suite into an integrated analytical environment.
Every tool generates structured numerical results that Claude AI interprets in plain language: executive summaries, risk narratives, policy recommendations. Auto-loads module data from saved scenarios — works across all 26 modules with per-tool prompt templates. Claude API primary, local Ollama fallback, deterministic templates offline. Streaming SSE support.
Multi-stakeholder workshops on the same project, in the same browser session. Live presence indicators, synchronized widget state, role-based access (Owner / Editor / Viewer), and an activity feed tracking every change. An auto-broadcast middleware emits <module>.changed events on every state-changing call, so React Query invalidations fire the moment another collaborator saves — across all 26 modules, no per-module wiring required. Built on WebSocket + Redis pub/sub for cross-process delivery.
475+ REST endpoints exposing every calculation engine — single project assessment or batch processing of hundreds. All 26 modules now ship with a public batch API, metered via X-API-Key with monthly quotas and Stripe billing (invoices + dunning). OData v4 with dual-auth (JWT + API key) for Power BI/Tableau. SCIM 2.0 for IdP user provisioning. Celery workers for nightly external data sync. OpenAPI documentation auto-generated. Designed for FMIS, e-procurement portals, IMF/World Bank systems, and government dashboards.
A Progressive Web App for field workflows: project data entry on site visits, VfM qualitative scoring during stakeholder meetings, risk allocation in workshops, climate scoring during inspections. Offline-capable with sync-when-connected. Installable from any modern browser — no app store required.
Beyond narrating numbers, the copilot reads documents and returns structured, validated output. Upload or paste a PPP/concession contract and it extracts guarantees, contingent liabilities, risk allocation and payment terms into FARO and Guarantees inputs; describe a transaction and it classifies it to the correct IPSAS standard with rationale and confidence; feed it Fiscal-Risk-Statement figures and it drafts a minister-ready narrative anchored to the IMF Fiscal Transparency Code. Schema-validated JSON on the metered Claude path, with a graceful manual-entry fallback — never a black box.
Every AFII tool runs on Python — the same language powering quantitative finance at Goldman Sachs, risk modeling at the IMF, and machine learning at Google. Here is why this matters for infrastructure fiscal analysis.
Run 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations across a full portfolio in seconds. The same analysis in Excel takes hours — or is simply not feasible.
No row limits, no memory constraints. Model 50-year concessions with 8 demand categories, 5 debt tranches, and 10,000 scenarios simultaneously — impossible in a spreadsheet.
Interactive charts, probability distributions, heatmaps, tornado diagrams, and real-time sensitivity surfaces — far beyond what any spreadsheet can render.
Each analytical engine is independent. Update the MRG valuation model without touching the debt guarantee engine. Add new guarantee types without rebuilding the platform.
Adapt any tool to a country's specific regulatory framework, reporting requirements, or institutional structure — without breaking the core engine.
Deploy exactly the tools you need. Use the Guarantee Valuation alone, or combine it with the Finance Model and GFS for end-to-end coverage. Each tool stands on its own.
All tools export to the formats your stakeholders expect — formatted Excel workbooks with multiple sheets, charts, and parameters, plus publication-ready PDF reports.
Monte Carlo simulation in Excel requires VBA macros or add-ins, running orders of magnitude slower. Most models cap at 1,000 iterations — insufficient for tail-risk analysis.
1,048,576 rows. Complex models with multiple scenarios hit memory walls, crash, or become unusably slow. Portfolio-level analysis is effectively impossible.
No interactivity, no hover tooltips, no dynamic filtering. Charts must be manually recreated for each scenario — creating presentation bottlenecks.
A single misplaced cell reference can silently corrupt an entire model. Studies show 88% of production spreadsheets contain errors. No automated testing is possible.
One person edits at a time. No version control, no change log, no rollback. Impossible to know who changed what, when, or why — a governance nightmare for public institutions.
Anyone with the file can see and modify everything. No role-based permissions, no read-only views for reviewers, no separation between analysts and approvers.
Every new project starts from scratch or copies a fragile template. No standardization, no reusable engines, no institutional learning across projects.
Every advisory mandate deploys AFII digital tools — creating lasting institutional capacity and generating ongoing license revenue for the client. This is how we build compounding relationships, not one-off engagements.
Austral is led by a former approver. Its founder was the Ministry of Finance counterpart that signed off on Chile's concession programme — 49 concessions worth US$9.75 billion, the 2006 Fiscal Responsibility Law and the 2009 reform of the Concessions Law. For mandates that call for it, Austral mobilises specialists with executive experience in the Chilean concession system from the grantor's side: the directorate-general of concessions and of public works, the legal directorate of the concessions unit, operations of public-building, airport and prison concessions, and the legality control of the State's administrative acts.
They join by engagement, not on retainer: their names and CVs appear in the proposal for the specific mandate, with availability committed for that work.
David Duarte Arancibia is one of the world's leading specialists in PPP fiscal risk management, combining over two decades of frontline experience as both government practitioner and international advisor. His credentials span the full spectrum: building and running Chile's fiscal risk management system, leading the World Bank's global infrastructure contingent liability agenda, and co-developing the PFRAM model now used by governments and MDBs worldwide.
No other firm combines this depth of practitioner experience with the technical capacity to translate it into scalable digital tools. David brings relationships across finance ministries, multilateral development banks, and infrastructure investors built over a 20-year career spanning five continents.
David spent a decade leading Chile's PPP & Contingent Liabilities Unit at the Budget Directorate, where he built the country's fiscal risk management framework from the ground up. He then joined the World Bank Group in Washington D.C. as Senior PPP Specialist, spending six years advising governments across five continents on infrastructure fiscal risk. Returning to Chile, he served as Head of the Public Finance Division and Board Member of the State Enterprise System (SEP). He currently advises the World Bank on the PFRAM methodology update and FCCL guidelines, and leads current ministry engagements in East Africa and Central Asia. Through Austral, his practice now spans the whole public-sector balance sheet — PPPs, state-owned enterprises, all-source guarantees, IPSAS accounting and climate fiscal risk.
Clients are not buying proprietary black-box models. They are buying tools and advice that align with the frameworks their regulators, MDB partners, and oversight bodies already require.
Government fiscal data is sensitive. Our platform is designed from the ground up to protect it — with no compromises on transparency about how your information is handled.
OIDC + SAML 2.0 single sign-on with JWKS id_token signature verification. Azure AD, Okta, and any RFC-compliant IdP. Guest mode for instant access — claim an account later. JWT tokens with bcrypt password hashing.
All traffic over TLS 1.2+ with HSTS. IdP client secrets Fernet-encrypted at rest. PostgreSQL with disk-level encryption. API keys SHA-256 hashed. No plaintext credentials stored anywhere.
Append-only activity log with SHA-256 hash chaining — every state-changing action is tamper-evident and verifiable. SIEM export in JSON, CEF (ArcSight), and LEEF (QRadar) formats. ISSAI 100-400 aligned audit report templates.
Four deployment variants: US (default), EU (Frankfurt/GDPR), LatAm (São Paulo/LGPD), and air-gapped on-premises — the three regional variants enforce data-residency commitments. All data workspace-scoped — no cross-tenant leakage. Export or delete all data at any time via API.
WCAG 2.1 AA accessible. Approval workflow with 3-stage e-sign (analyst → reviewer → approver). Role-based access control (Owner/Editor/Viewer). Stripe PCI DSS Level 1 for payment processing.
Every tool documents its complete methodology — mathematical formulations, distributional assumptions, simulation parameters, and calculation logic. No black boxes. Same inputs always produce the same outputs. Reproducible for SAI review.
Whether you need a tool subscription, an advisory mandate, or a customized institutional deployment — the next step starts with a conversation.